Hawthorn's Fortress Falls, Will Finals Hopes Follow?

The Age

Monday July 30, 2007

Rohan Connolly on Monday

The Kangaroos' big win in Launceston has consigned Hawthorn to a desperate struggle to stay in the finals race.

HAWTHORN'S imposing recent record at Aurora Stadium weighed heavily on a lot of minds in the lead-up to yesterday's clash with the Kangaroos at the same venue. Far too much, as it turned out.

True, the Hawks had beaten grand final fancies Geelong and West Coast in their two previous appearances in Launceston this season, won all three games last year, and were previously beaten there by Adelaide back in round 15, 2005. But history can't ever prove as big a factor in a likely outcome as current form and personnel, and on both those counts, Hawthorn was in trouble before yesterday's game had even begun.

The previous three weeks had yielded a smashing at the hands of Adelaide, a run-of-the-mill win over bottom side Richmond and another loss last week to St Kilda as the lead-in to a clash with a team that had won 11 of its past 13 games, its past four straight. Once Sam Mitchell and "Buddy" Franklin were announced as late withdrawals from yesterday's game, the "Aurora fortress" theory was looking even flimsier.

And after a 37-point defeat, so, too, is the argument that the Hawks could do some serious damage come September. Sitting in second spot only a fortnight ago, defeat has pushed Hawthorn down to fifth, a game outside the top four and the all-important double chance, only a game clear of ninth and 10th, and facing a draw that looks a lot tougher now than a few weeks ago.

There's Essendon, still alive after beating Adelaide yesterday and in the grip of a post-Sheedy emotional high. Then the Brisbane Lions, four wins on end and making a late finals charge. Then Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium, the Power having taken the Hawks' top-four spot and hardly keen to hand it back. Finally, there's the Western Bulldogs and then Sydney at the SCG.

If Alastair Clarkson's side does somehow scramble back into the top four by the time September starts, it already will have fought a mini-finals campaign to do so. Remaining part of any finals action is going to be challenge enough.

Clarkson didn't dwell on the injury front last night, though to a point he was entitled to. If Mitchell's loss left a hole in midfield, the absence of Franklin, combined with that of Tim Boyle over the past month and Mark Williams for virtually the entire season, has spread Hawthorn's forward stocks terribly thin.

Its defence is starting to struggle, too. As good as Campbell Brown has been on a series of bigger opponents, he's been found out the past two weekends on first Nick Riewoldt then Corey Jones, whose 7.4 might have been 10.1. His eventual shift forward was a reflection of problems at both ends of the ground.

Things weren't great in the middle, either, where Roos ruckman Hamish McIntosh held his own for hitouts, won clearances and had more possession than his Hawthorn opponents Simon Taylor and Robert Campbell put together.

No coach likes to use injuries as an excuse. Yet Clarkson would realise they can't explain away his team's malaise, the deeper concern being that the youngest list in the competition might be starting to run out of puff when it matters most, and perhaps also is being found out for physical strength.

The Roos bustled their opposition out of the way too often yesterday, as had St Kilda the week before and Adelaide a fortnight before that. Relentless physical pressure eventually will take a toll on mind and body. It certainly did on the Hawks yesterday, turning over the ball and failing to hit their targets with disturbing regularity - inefficiency reflected in the stats, which finished with Hawthorn ahead for possession, clearances and inside 50s, yet more than six goals adrift on the scoreboard. It was a margin that, in truth, probably flattered the Hawks, given six of their 10 goals came in the final term with the contest dead.

The Kangaroos have had to grind out most of their victories over four quarters this season, but this one was locked away nice and early. That's 12 from 14. A two-game buffer in the top four. Serious tests over the next three weeks in the shape of Brisbane, West Coast and Geelong, but games against the Bulldogs and Carlton to finish with, which on current form the Roos will bolt in.

The all-Victorian top four that looked a real possibility only a couple of weeks back seems more far-fetched now. West Coast is back in a big way. Port Adelaide is finishing hard.

Geelong and the Roos have the mettle to match them, but Hawthorn has some work to do to prove it does as well. And no so-called fortress is going to help.

© 2007 The Age

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